Author: Bhavna Goswami* and Sushma Jain
Download PDF
Tuberculosis (TB) continues to be a major public health concern in India, particularly in socioeconomically disadvantaged regions where nutritional deficiencies are widespread. Madhya Pradesh, one of the high-burden states, exhibits a concerning overlap between elevated TB incidence and chronic malnutrition among women and children. This study aims to quantify the relationship between nutritional indicators and TB prevalence across ten selected districts in Madhya Pradesh using Bayesian regression analysis. Secondary data were sourced from the NIKSHAY portal (2015–2022) for TB cases and from NFHS-5 and the State Nutrition Profile (2019–2021) for malnutrition indicators, including anemia, stunting, and underweight status. Descriptive statistics and correlation analyses revealed strong associations between TB prevalence and nutritional deficits, particularly anemia in children and underweight status in women. Bayesian linear regression was employed to model the predictive strength of five key nutritional variables. The best-fitting model explained 95% of the variance in TB prevalence (R² = 0.950), with high posterior inclusion probabilities and Bayes Factors supporting the relevance of each predictor. Notably, anemia in children emerged as the most influential variable, followed by underweight women, while stunting and underweight children showed complex or inverse associations.These findings reinforce the hypothesis that malnutrition significantly contributes to TB vulnerability and underscore the importance of integrating nutritional interventions into TB control programs. By applying Bayesian methods, this study offers a robust statistical framework for identifying high-risk populations and guiding targeted public health strategies. The results have implications for policy formulation, resource allocation, and the design of integrated health programs in Madhya Pradesh and similar high-burden regions.
Tuberculosis, Malnutrition, Madhya Pradesh, Public Health, Correlation Analysis, Nutritional Deficiencies, Environmental Health
The study confirms that nutritional deficiencies especially anemia in children and underweight status in women are significant predictors of TB prevalence in Madhya Pradesh. Bayesian regression analysis provided robust evidence supporting the integration of nutrition-focused interventions into TB control programs. Targeted efforts in high-burden districts such as Rewa, Satna, and Sagar could significantly reduce TB incidence and improve overall public health outcomes.
-
Bhavna Goswami and Sushma Jain (2025). Quantifying the Nutritional Determinants of TB: Evidence from Madhya Pradesh Using Bayesian Regression. International Journal of Theoretical & Applied Sciences, 17(2): 110–114.
Indexing