Price fluctuations in agricultural commodities have a negative impact on a country's GDP and farmers are harmed both emotionally and financially as a result of their years of toil. Because of this reason prediction of prices may assist the agricultural supply chain in making necessary decisions in minimizing and managing price risk. Present study was conducted in West Tripura District, which was chosen on the basis of price of the paddy crop. Tripura offers all of the suitable circumstances for paddy growing, with a lot of potential. Due to price instabilities, Tripura farmers are currently not interested in growing paddy crops. The market's knowledge, which is essential to the social and economic activities that make up the development process, will be provided via price prediction. In this study, SARIMA models were developed to predict the paddy prices using time series data from January 2000 to February 2022.By comparing Bayesian Information Criteria(BIC), Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) and Ljung-Box test, SARIMA (0,1,2)(1,0,1)12 had chosen the top. Based on the fitted model, the paddy price was predicted up to December, 2022 and highest price found to be on September 2022 would be `1923.5/qt.

Price Forecasting, Paddy crops, ARIMA.

In agricultural markets, time series forecasting is essential. Commodity price volatility makes it difficult to make any decision timely based on commonsense. Tripura is having good agro-climatic conditions, deep fertile soils, and subtropical humid climate with abundance of rainfall, which offers tremendous scope for cultivation of paddy and also this, is the major crops grown in the state but farmers in Tripura have been turning away from paddy production in recent years due to price swings. In this study SARIMA (0,1,2)(1,0,1)12 was the best fitted model for forecasting the price of paddy in west Tripura district and according to this model, in the September of 2022 price would be high among all these month . So, by the Analysis of this study, decisions can be made by the farmers of West Tripura, District in selecting crop for cultivation that will lead to a better economic outcome.

Prasenjit Gope, R. Pangayar Selvi, R.Vasanthi and V. Karthick (2022). A Study on Price Forecasting of Paddy in West Tripura, District. Biological Forum – An International Journal, 14(2): 1469-1473.