Time series analysis is a vital tool for examining agricultural production trends, enabling evidence-based planning, policymaking and efficient resource management. This study investigates the long-term production trends of rice in India from 1950–51 to 2022–23 using linear time series models. Among the models tested, Holt’s Exponential Smoothing emerged as the most suitable for capturing the trend and variability in rice production. The analysis indicates a generally positive growth trajectory for rice, with moderate fluctuations over the years. Forecasts from 2024 to 2032 project continued growth in rice production, underscoring the need for strategic interventions. To sustain and amplify this growth, the adoption of high-yielding seed varieties, modern cultivation practices and improved agricultural infrastructure is essential. The study's findings provide a critical foundation for informed policy formulation and sustainable agricultural development aimed at ensuring long-term food security and meeting the rising demand of India's growing population

Time series analysis, Forecasting, ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing etc

Time series analysis for forecasting is a valuable tool for predicting future values based on historical data. The identification of the best-fitted time series model, along with the resulting forecasting patterns, can play a crucial role in addressing future food security challenges and guiding policy-making in India. These forecasts provide actionable insights for policymakers to develop strategic interventions. To sustain the projected growth in production, it is crucial to promote climate-resilient practices, adopt high-yield seeds and implement precision farming technologies. Additionally, strengthening farmer capacities through training and financial support will play a vital role in enhancing productivity and resilience. These findings serve as a crucial resource for researchers and policymakers, offering a roadmap for developing sustainable agricultural strategies that ensure long-term food security and agricultural growth

Kumari Sandeep, Ajit Sharma, Shilpa and Mahima Lohia (2025). Forecasting of Rice Production in India using Linear Time Series Models. Biological Forum, 17(5a): 19-23