Instability and Decomposition Analysis of Apple Crop in Kashmir

Author: Arif Bashir, Imran Khan, Bhagyashree Dhekale, M S Pukhta, Farhat A. Shaheen, A. H. Mughal and Bariz Aijaz Wani

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Abstract

Assessing the trends in variability in agricultural production is crucial for comprehending the shifts in outputs over time. This study investigates the patterns of apple crop production in the Kashmir region, utilizing time-series data spanning from 2001-02 to 2019-20. The study's aim is to examine the volatility and breakdown of area, production, and productivity in apple crop cultivation. The results indicate significant instability in crop production in the region, with the greatest instability found in the yield aspect, followed by production and area. The extent of instability fluctuates between two time periods, implying shifts in production patterns. The breakdown analysis identifies shifts in average yield and average area as the primary contributors to variations in overall production. Furthermore, changes in yield variance, area variance, and shifts in average area significantly influence production instability in various districts. Notably, alterations in average area emerge as the dominant factor affecting overall production in the Kashmir division. This research provides valuable insights into the factors affecting production instability and underscores the importance of addressing yield variance, area variance, and changes in average area to improve the stability and productivity of apple crop cultivation in the region.

Keywords

Instability, Coefficient of variation, Coppock Instability index, Cuddy-Della Valle index, Decomposition Analysis.

Conclusion

This study systematically assessed the instability and decomposition of the Apple crop in the districts of the Kashmir division in UT of Jammu and Kashmir. It aimed to provide valuable insights for policymakers in formulating effective policies to improve the Apple crop in the region. Data was collected from the official website of the Directorate of Horticulture, Kashmir, covering two periods (period-I: 2001-02 to 2009-10, period-II: 2010-11 to 2019-20) and an overall period (2001-02 to 2019-20). Various indices, such as the Coefficient of Variation, Cuddy-Della Valle index, and Coppock's Instability Index, were employed to calculate district-wise instability in the area, production, and yield of the apple crop. The Hazell decomposition model was utilized to assess the relative contributions of area and yield to the total production. The study revealed that, across different districts in the Kashmir division, the area exhibited lower instability compared to production and yield. Specifically, District Budgam demonstrated the highest instability in yield, followed by production in the same district, and area in District Srinagar. Conversely, District Baramulla displayed the lowest instability in the area, followed by yield in District Pulwama, and production in District Srinagar and District Pulwama. Upon analyzing the zones, it was observed that all three zones exhibited lower instability in the area compared to production and yield. The Central zone had the highest instability in yield, followed by the North zone in production, and the South zone. Notably, the North zone displayed the lowest instability in the area. Overall, the study indicated that yield experienced the highest instability, followed by production, while the area had the lowest instability. The district-level decomposition analysis underscored changes in mean yield, mean area, and yield variation as the primary factors contributing to the increase in the average output of the apple crop. Likewise, the analysis conducted at the zone level revealed the dominance of the change in mean yield in all three zones. However, the study places emphasis on the finding that the change in mean area was the dominant factor contributing to the rise in the average output of the apple crop in the Kashmir division. In conclusion, this research has yielded valuable insights into the instability and decomposition analysis of the apple crop in the Kashmir division. It has illuminated the factors influencing production and proposed potential areas for improvement in agricultural policies and practices. Such studies play a crucial role in comprehending production fluctuations and provide guidance for scientific planning and the implementation of agricultural development programs. Further investigations into other important crops, including fruit crops, oilseeds, and cereals, at both the state and district levels, are recommended to augment our understanding of agricultural dynamics in the region.

References

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How to cite this article

Arif Bashir, Imran Khan, Bhagyashree Dhekale, M S Pukhta, Farhat A. Shaheen, A. H. Mughal and Bariz Aijaz Wani (2023). Instability and Decomposition Analysis of Apple Crop in Kashmir. Biological Forum – An International Journal, 15(10): 1657-1667.