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Comparative Analysis of Statistical Model and Machine Learning Algorithms in Forecasting Black Pepper Price of Kerala

Author: Muhammed Irshad M., Kader Ali Sarkar, Digvijay Singh Dhakre and Debasis Bhattacharya

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Abstract

Black pepper is one of the most widely used spices in the world and it has played a significant role in global trade and culinary traditions. This study aims to develop effective models for forecasting weekly black pepper prices. Weekly price data of black pepper from 2007 to 2020 was collected, with 95% of the data used for model building and the remaining 5% used for model validation. The study developed a conventional linear model, ARIMA (2, 1, 1), and an advanced machine learning nonlinear model, NNAR (5, 3), based on proper model selection criteria. These models were then compared to determine the best one, and it was found that NNAR (5, 3) is the most effective model for forecasting the weekly black pepper prices in Kerala

Keywords

ARIM, ANN, Price Forecasting, Machine Learning, Black Pepper Price

Conclusion

This study aims to develop a robust model for forecasting the price of black pepper in Kerala, India. Recognizing the increasing relevance of machine learning techniques, the study undertakes a comparative analysis of conventional linear model, specifically ARIMA, and advanced nonparametric non-linear machine learning model ANN. The comparison reveals that the NNAR (5, 3) model outperforms ARIMA (2, 1, 1) model in terms of forecasting accuracy. Consequently, the study proposes the NNAR (5, 3) model - a specific type of neural network autoregressive model as the best model for forecasting the weekly price of black pepper in Kerala. The NNAR (5, 3) model effectively captures the complex, non-linear patterns in the data, offering a significant improvement in predictive performance over traditional forecasting methods

References

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How to cite this article

Muhammed Irshad M., Kader Ali Sarkar, Digvijay Singh Dhakre and Debasis Bhattacharya (2024). Comparative Analysis of Statistical Model and Machine Learning Algorithms in Forecasting Black Pepper Price of Kerala. Biological Forum – An International Journal, 16(8): 63-68.