Statical Analysis of Rainfall Trends of Shimla District, Himachal Pradesh

Author: Prithi Pal Singh and M.R. Sharma

Journal Name:

Download PDF

Abstract

The study faced challenges in dealing with the inherent variability and complexity of rainfall patterns in Shimla District, requiring a meticulous examination of long-term data and the application of various statistical techniques. Additionally, the unpredictability of climatic conditions and the potential impact of climate change posed challenges in projecting accurate future rainfall values. Despite these challenges, the study contributes significantly to the field. It provides a thorough statistical analysis of 29 years of rainfall data in Shimla District, shedding light on mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, skewness, and kurtosis for both monthly and annual rainfall. The identification of an erratic rainfall pattern, particularly highlighted by the coefficient of variation, offers valuable insights for engineering projects and water resource planning. Furthermore, the study employs various plotting position formulae and probability distribution functions to assess the return period of yearly rainfall. The adoption of the Chegodayev technique as the most fitting distribution for yearly rainfall data enhances the accuracy of return period projections. According to this technique, the projected rainfall for return periods of 5, 10, 50, 100, and 150 years is estimated at 1040.25 mm, 1112.57 mm, 1691.16 mm, 2414.40 mm and 3137.64 mm respectively. These estimated rainfall values for different return periods provide crucial information for designing resilient engineering structures and facilitating informed decision-making for water resource planners, farmers and urban planners. This comprehensive analysis contributes to a better understanding of rainfall dynamics in Shimla District, offering practical implications for infrastructure development and water management in the region.

Keywords

Statistical Analysis, Shimla (H.P), Return Period, Rainfall Data

Conclusion

The statistical analysis of the rainfall data from 1994 to 2022 in Shimla District, Himachal Pradesh, aimed to comprehend the rainfall patterns in the region. Key parameters such as mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation were calculated for both yearly and monthly rainfall to assess variability. The outcomes revealed an erratic rainfall pattern, with the highest recorded rainfall of 1392.90 mm in 2022 and the lowest at 737.72 mm in 2004. The average annual rainfall over the 29-year period amounted to 1035.30 mm. July exhibited the highest mean rainfall at 217.41 mm, while November recorded the least at 15.96 mm. The analysis identified significant variability in rainfall data, particularly in October, November and December (142.91%, 185.94%, and 120.26%, respectively). In contrast, May, July and August experienced lower variability at 50.12%, 41.83%, and 36.54% respectively. This analysis holds valuable insights for agricultural engineers, farmers and water resource planners. It aids in assessing water availability and designing suitable storage solutions. Given the unpredictable rainfall pattern, the findings can guide the design of effective drainage systems to prevent flooding, stabilize agriculture, and provide long-term security for farmers investments. Additionally, the study contributes to a better understanding of regional and global climate and rainfall patterns. The recommendation is made to conduct similar studies for other districts in Himachal Pradesh once adequate data becomes available. Recognizing the impact of short-duration, intense storms versus longer storms with higher constant loading on drainage systems can enhance the precision of future analyses.

References

-

How to cite this article

Prithi Pal Singh and M.R. Sharma (2023). Statical Analysis of Rainfall Trends of Shimla District, Himachal Pradesh. Biological Forum – An International Journal, 15(4): 957-962.