Statistical Model for annual Trends and Magnitude of Climatic variability Across Locations from the Vindhya Plateau Agroclimatic Zone of Madhya Pradesh

Author: Ranjeet, S.K. Sharma, Sushma Jain and H.L. Khapediya

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Abstract

Climate change has disrupted the major climatic parameters at a global level. However, the changes having localized intensity area not equal for all especially in India. These changes must be quantified locally to manage the natural water resources more effectively. Precipitation is one of the most important climatic parameters. It has been widely measured as a starting point towards the apprehension of global climate change. The purpose of this study is to observe the temporal variability of rainfall for the period of 1991-2020 (30 year), to improve the Agriculture status of different districts of Vindhya Pleatue Agroclimatic zone (District – Bhopal, Damoha, Sagar, Sehore and Vidisha). The aim of the study is to determine the trend in annual precipitation time series using the Mann-Kendall and Sen’s T test. The magnitudes of trend in precipitation have been estimated by Sen’s estimator method. Auto correlation effects were reduced before applying the Mann-Kendall test for the trend in precipitation. On the annual basis, analysis of Mann-Kendall test shows decreasing and non-significance trend in rainfall times series of all the districts except Bhopal Bhopal, Damoha, Sagar, Sehore and Vidisha which showed significant changes.

Keywords

Mann Kendall & Sen slope estimator, Trend Analysis, Climatic variability, Rainfall analysis

Conclusion

In the district Bhopal months of June, July, and August have the highest rainfall amounts, with significant variability and positive trends. September shows a significant decreasing trend in rainfall. Winter and autumn seasons exhibit high variability in rainfall, while summer and the rainy season show moderate variability. No significant trends are observed in winter, summer, rainy season, or autumn rainfall. The analysis provides insights into the statistical properties and trends in rainfall for each month and season, aiding in understanding the patterns and variability in the region's precipitation. Sagar district In conclusion, the data suggests that there is a decreasing trend in annual rainfall, although it is not statistically significant. The South West monsoon season (Jun-Sep) receives the highest amount of rainfall, while the winter season (Jan-Feb) receives the least. The data also shows a positive skewness, indicating a higher occurrence of heavy rainfall events. However, further analysis and significance testing are necessary to make more definitive conclusions. Sehore district the provided data shows the monthly rainfall statistics for each month of the year, as well as the statistics for different seasonal and annual periods. The data exhibits varying degrees of variability, skewness, and kurtosis throughout the months and seasons. Some months, such as January, October, and November, show higher variability and leptokurtic distributions, indicating heavy tails and sharper peaks. Overall, the annual rainfall demonstrates moderate variability and a platykurtic distribution. It's important to note that these conclusions are based on the provided data, and further analysis and consideration of other factors may be required for a comprehensive understanding of the rainfall patterns. it can be observed that the relationship between the number of rainy days and the independent variable varies across different districts or regions. Some regions exhibit a weak relationship, while others show a moderate relationship. The growth rates indicate either a slight positive or negative change in the number of rainy days with an increase in the independent variable. It's important to note that the significance level is not provided in the given data, so we cannot make any conclusions based on it.

References

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How to cite this article

Ranjeet, S.K. Sharma, Sushma Jain and H.L. Khapediya (2023). Statistical Model for annual Trends and Magnitude of Climatic variability Across Locations from the Vindhya Plateau Agroclimatic Zone of Madhya Pradesh. Biological Forum – An International Journal, 15(5): 1687-1698.